Moorhead, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

769
FXUS63 KFGF 220552
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1152 PM CST Sat Dec 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A wintry mix is likely across central and southeast North Dakota
Sunday afternoon and overnight with a glaze of ice possible.

- Warming up for the holiday week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1152 PM CST Sat Dec 21 2024

Not much in the way of fog currently in our northwestern
counties as that area has seen stratus move in, but could see
some clearing upstream and fog redeveloping so won`t remove from
the forecast.

UPDATE
Issued at 944 PM CST Sat Dec 21 2024

Some clearing in the southwestern portions of the forecast area,
but warm air advection continues to keep temps in the teens
above zero. Models continue to show some fog developing in the
Devils Lake area later tonight, and there continues to be some
BR near Langdon and some fog was briefly reported near the
Turtle Mountains earlier. Will continue to keep a mention going
over our northwestern counties.

UPDATE
Issued at 634 PM CST Sat Dec 21 2024

Clouds continue to move across most of the forecast area. Some
light BR bringing visibility down to 6 miles at Langdon, but no
indication of any impacts on the web cam or ND roads map. Main
impacts still look like they will be later on tomorrow with the
stronger shortwave and more moisture. No changes to the overall
forecast we have going.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 202 PM CST Sat Dec 21 2024

...Synopsis...

Current western CONUS ridging will continue to break down over the
next day with a transition to a more zonal to quasi southwest flow
regime through the coming week. By the end of the week there is
ensemble support for more sustained central CONUS troughing with
increasing opportunities for precipitation. As flow shifts through
the week a warmup can also be anticipated complicating the forecast
with multiple precipitation types becoming possible.

- Wintry Mix Sunday

A shortwave, just now coming ashore the Washington state coast, will
meander across the northern Rockies tonight before ejecting east
into the northern plains. With subtle lower level thermal ridging
currently presiding over the region the present dry lower to mid
level airmass should delay the onset of precip in eastern North
Dakota until tomorrow afternoon when stronger forcing is nearby.
Initially there looks to be favorable conditions south of HWY 200 in
both MN and ND for freezing drizzle/rain. As the warm nose between
850-750mb saturates and wet bulbs to around the 0C mark, heavily
rimed snowflakes will likely become favored if not sleet. This
leaves much up in the air about how much of any given p-type will
fall but with our recent cold spell and fresh snowpack anything that
does fall should have no issue accumulating. Currently probabilities
are highest (at 30%) in southeast ND for a glaze to couple
hundredths of ice with high chance of QPF exceeding 0.05 inches. The
difference in 0.05" of ice vs a few tenths is snow would likely be
the difference in needing a winter weather advisory for a glaze of
ice and seasonal northern plains winter driving conditions. For now
will utilize an SPS to raise awareness for the wintry mix and glaze
of ice potential.

- Holiday Warmup

With the pivot from our recent NW flow to zonal/SW flow, building
850mb thermal ridging will see highs climb from the today high in
the teens to the upper 20s and lower 30s by Christmas (Tuesday) with
these warm temperatures sticking around into next weekend. Some good
and some bad will certainly come from this. The warming temps will
do wonders to crust over our fresh snowpack from a few days ago
making it difficult to impossible to blow. On the contrary surfaces
could certainly see the impact of the coming December thaw with a
soupy mess entirely possible. We`ll try to stay in the holiday
spirit however and focus on the positives and not the negatives for
this one. Finally to wrap up as clusters are showing at least some
alignment with more stout SW flow developing by the late week it
looks like it wont be an entirely dry week but still no notable
systems on the horizon once we get past Sunday/Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1152 PM CST Sat Dec 21 2024

A mix of VFR, MVFR and IFR conditions with some clearing across
the southern and western portions of the forecast area and
stratus across the north. The cloud cover is a mix of levels,
but there should be a decrease in conditions for many airports
down to MVFR or lower at times. Some fog possible at KDVL, kept
vis at 2SM for the lowest for now. Some improvement in category
during tomorrow afternoon, then going back down Sunday evening.
Winds will decrease from southeasterly to light and variable.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
DISCUSSION...TT
AVIATION...JR