Moorhead, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

799
FXUS63 KFGF 122354
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
554 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wind gusts up to 45 mph remain possible through late this evening.

- Light rain will move through the area late tonight into
  Wednesday. There is a 60% chance for greater than 0.25" of
  rainfall from far southeast North Dakota and across west
  central Minnesota.

- A cooler and wetter pattern starts to take shape towards the
  middle of next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 548 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2024

Winds are still marginally advisory level with a few gusts
scraping 40 mph, but the widespreadedness is diminishing. For
this reason, the wind advisory will be allowed to expire at 6
PM, but you could still see isolated gusts to 40 mph.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1246 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2024

...Synopsis...

Shortwave ridging continues eastward today, with a relatively strong
low level jet bringing gusty winds through the remainder of the
afternoon. Look for this to weaken late this evening as the H5
pattern begins to transition more southwesterly ahead of our next
system. Light rain is expected to develop along a trough axis later
tonight, bringing a 60 percent chance for 0.25 inch or more rain to
portions of the area, primarily west-central Minnesota and far
southeastern North Dakota. Lighter amounts are expected further
northwest.

Brief H5 ridging traverses the area heading into Thursday; however,
troughing in southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba will limit the
strength of the ridge. Overall, warmer than average temperatures are
likely across the Northern Plains Friday into Saturday, with rain
chances on the increase once more late Saturday into Sunday. Ptypes
look to remain liquid for the most part, with a very low chance for
a rain/snow mix across portions of the Devils Lake Basin Saturday
night.

Heading into next week, there are signals for additional activity,
mainly in the form of rain; however, ensemble guidance suggests a
more seasonal shift in temperatures, which could introduce a mention
of snow across portions of the area. At this time, confidence is far
too low to consider impact potential, but is worth keeping an eye on
moving into the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 548 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2024

Isolated MVFR conditions and wind gusts/low level wind shear
will be the primary impacts for the TAF period. Wind gusts will
diminish in intensity near surface, however this will be
replaced by wind shear across the northern plains. Ceilings will
generally remain VFR but will fall after 06z to MVFR and
potentially IFR. Rain will be the primary impacts after 12z, and
may cause visibility to fall to MVFR, but overcast conditions
through the remainder of the TAF period should keep things MVFR
regardless of visibility.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for NDZ008-016-027-
     029-030-039-053-054.
MN...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for MNZ001>004-007-
     029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Perroux
DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...Perroux